Permanente, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

259
FXUS65 KVEF 060532
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1032 PM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Monsoon moisture will remain in place through Sunday, promoting
  scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Activity
  will gradually shift eastward as drier air moves into the
  region early next week.

* A drying trend is expected the first half of the week as flow
  becomes more westerly. Relatively cooler temperatures will also
  overspread the region by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Anomalously high moisture remains across the Desert Southwest,
trapped beneath a flattening area of high pressure situated over
northern Mexico. This coupled with daytime heating and orographic
and mesoscale influences will continue to promote scattered
showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Areas of central and
southern Nevada, and adjacent western Arizona look to hold the
greatest potential for showers and storms. Hi-res ensembles have
recently struggled with convective evolution into the evening and
overnight hours, often underestimating the longevity and intensity
of showers and storms. Recent examples include Tuesday earlier
this week and last night, when large storm complexes developed and
lasted well past sunrise. The gradual invasion of drier air makes
for lesser confidence in something similar happening overnight,
but there remains at least a 10-20 percent chance of some kind of
convective complex developing across central/southern Nevada and
shifting south and east overnight. Regardless, any stronger storm
cells will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 3-4 inches
per hour, localized flooding and gusty winds. The focus for
Sunday`s storms will shift eastward into mostly western Arizona
and Utah as upper flow becomes more westerly in nature. However,
an isolated terrain induced storm or two may occur further west.

Medium to long range ensembles display rather high confidence in
the development of a large upper trough off the California coast.
This will push remnant moisture east of the region, resulting in
drier conditions. With lower heights, we can also expect to see
temperatures around 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals. The drier
air will also bring more relief overnight with pleasant morning
conditions from midweek on.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Vicinity
convection likely to continue until 08-09z, with a ~25% chance of
storms directly impacting the terminal. Northeast outflow winds
should persist for a few hours, with gusts 15-25 knots possible.
Once convection pushes off to the southeast, winds will become light
and variable. Easterly breezes resume Saturday morning with speeds
generally 6-10 knots. Vicinity storms expected Saturday afternoon,
but should remain out of the valley. Convection and clouds will
begin to clear out in the early evening, with light southerly winds
taking hold.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Convection continues in
the vicinity of the Las Vegas Valley until 08-09z tonight, with a
~25% chance of storms directly impacting the valley sites. These
storms are expected to continue pushing southeast through Mohave
County overnight. Outflow from this activity should result in a
northerly wind shift at the Colorado River Valley and Mohave County
airports. Farther west, calmer conditions prevail overnight.
Tomorrow, expecting winds to follow typical, daily patterns with
isolated afternoon convection east of the I-15 corridor.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Austin
AVIATION...Woods


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